Cheap Seat Predictions: AFC Divisional Round

By Garrett Pelto

Just like that there is only three weeks left of the NFL season (minus the Pro Bowl, that no one cares about). So cherish these playoff games even if your team isn’t in it! Football will be over before soon…

We are going to continue our Cheap Seat Predictions for the AFC and NFC Divisional rounds, similar to last week where we went 2 for 4 in our predictions.

Successfully predicting the Cowboys’ victory over the Seahawks (only off by three points) AND the Chargers’ victory over the Ravens (only off by ONE point!).

Unfortunately, we couldn’t predict the Texans’ meltdown or Cody Parkey‘s blocked field goal.

Like the Bears next season, Cheap Seats is going to bounce back. Lessgetit… 💺💺💺

Indianapolis Colts (#6) vs Kansas City Chiefs (#1):

Saturday, January 12 @ 4:35 p.m. EST

Andrew Luck, you dirty dog, you.

222 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against the Texans last week. Slight work.

Luck, and mainly that offensive line, made it look easy. I mean, they were up 21-0 going into the fourth quarter. With that Madden Skunk score, the Colts relied on Marlon Mack and the running game for the rest of the time and didn’t really need Luck.

We mentioned last week, and every analyst will reiterate this weekend, how the Colts started 1-5 and turned their season around to finish 10-6. They proved to the league that the are a dangerous team if you don’t come prepared… *cough cough, Deshaun Watson and the entire Texans defense*

But the Colts defense should be praised as well. They held the Texans to 105 total rushing yards and only 235 passing yards on nearly 50 attempts from Watson.

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But will it be enough to hold off Party Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs number one offense?

The Chiefs had quite the opposite start to their season than the Colts. They started their season 5-1, losing their first game to the Patriots in Arrowhead, 40-43.

Then they won their next four meetings and lost to the Rams in LA, in arguably the most exciting game of the season, 51-54. In their five games after their Week 12 bye, they went 3-2.

Losing:

  • Week 15 against the Chargers, 28-29
  • Week 16 against the Seahawks, 31-38

Both the Chargers and the Seahawks were fighting for their playoff spots while the Chiefs had already clinched a playoff spot in Week 14. Another takeaway for the Chiefs from those two losses is that they only lost by single digits.

The Chiefs are number one offense, we all know this. Under Party Pat the Chiefs are:

  • First in points for
  • First in total yards
  • Third in passing yards
  • First in scoring percentage

The area for concern is their defense, in which they are:

  • 24th in scoring defense
  • 27th in rushing yards against
  • 31st in passing yards against

That is almost laughable. Not if your the type of fan that misses the old defensive stalemates. Those stats and the Chiefs still being number one in the AFC gives reason for the argument that defense isn’t important anymore. And to make matters worse for their D, Chiefs’ safety and team captain, Eric Berry is questionable with a heel injury (he was also held out of the Chiefs’ last game). It’s hard to imagine he will miss this playoff game, but he will be greatly missed if he can’t strap-up.

The Chiefs have been shaky in Arrowhead during the playoffs to say the least. They haven’t won a playoff game there in 25 years! I think when you look at this game, like most KC games this year, it comes down to who can score more.

The Chiefs have faced some decent defenses in the Rams, Chargers (two times) and Ravens. Obviously the Rams didn’t stop the Chiefs from scoring, but the had some TOs and defensive TDs. The Chargers and Ravens held the Chiefs to under 30 points, but it still wasn’t enough.

I really want to pick Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. This kid is the future of the NFL and, in my opinion, deserves the MVP over Drew Brees (sorry Drew, you should have won it by now). My gut is telling me not to trust the Chiefs for some reason.

It’s snowing like crazy.

I think Luck’s offensive line does what they did last week and I think they’re able to control the ball late on the ground. They need to score a lot and don’t let Pat have the ball last.

Colts 30, Chiefs 24

 

Los Angels Chargers (#5) vs New England Patriots (#2)

Sunday, January 13 @ 1:05 p.m. EST

Gotta toot my own horn again and say I was spot on with that Chargers/Ravens prediction (off by a point which is unfortunate). Phillip did his thang and Lamar turned the ball over. Just like I figured.

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37-year-old, Philip Rivers going against 41-year-old, Tom Brady. Battle of the dinosaurs. The last time they faced each other in the postseason it was in 2007 when Rivers played on a torn ACL.

Like we talked about with the Chargers last week, they started the year 5-2 heading into their Week 8 bye. Only losing to the Chiefs, 28-38 and the Rams, 23-35.

Their defense is ninth in total yards against them, led by Joey Bosa and Derwin James (who I think will strap Gronk this week). Their offense is sixth in points for and fifth in scoring percentage. And to improve that offense even more, they’re officially getting TE and redzone threat, Hunter Henry, back from his ACL injury.

Quick someone tell Stephen A. Smith! Never mind. The Cards got us.

Now for the Evil Empire in New England. They started 1-2 losing to the Jags, 20-31 and Lions 26-10. But like the Pats always do, they turned it around, going 6-1 into the bye. Went 4-2 in their last six games, only losing to the Dolphins on a lateral, last second play (hilarious) and to the Steelers in a close one (also awesome… although Steelers couldn’t do shit with the win).

Image result for joe haden interception against brady gif

That loss to the Steelers is what leads me to my deciding factor for this game. The way Brady threw that interception near the end of the game in Pittsburgh was so unlike him. It really shows what happens when you pressure him. Especially in his old age when he apparently can’t get it out of bounds.

I think Philip and the Chargers steal a close one against the Patriots in Gillette, ending the Patriots reign once and for all. Next year will Brady’s last go and then Bill Belichick will be gone not too long after setting up the future for Josh McDaniels.

Chargers 21, Patriots 16


 

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